U.S. Consumer Confidence Sees Biggest Drop in 3 Years

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index fell in September to 98.7, down from 105.6 in August and to the lowest level since August 2021.

The September drop came just two months after the index posted its best mark in two years.

This decrease reflects “consumers concerns about the labor market and reactions to few hours, slower payroll increases and fewer job openings,” The Conference Board Chief Economist Dana Peterson said in a Sept. 24 news release.

“Consumer confidence dropped in September to near the bottom of the narrow range that has prevailed over the past two years,” he added. “Confidence declined in September across most income groups, with consumers earning less than $50,000 experiencing the largest decrease. On a six-month moving average basis, consumers earning over $100,000 remained the most confident.”

The Present Situation Index — based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions — fell by 10.3 points to 124.3.

The Expectations Index — based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions — declined by 4.6 points to 81.7.

Importantly, Expectations remained above 80 — the level that historically signals a recession within the next year, The Conference Board wrote.

“Despite slower overall inflation and declines in some goods prices, average 12-month inflation expectations increased to 5.2% in September,” they wrote. “Nonetheless, this measure remains well below the peak of 7.9% reached in March 2022.”