CFNAI Index: Growth Moderated in August

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) decreased to a neutral value in August from +0.29 in July, the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago said Sept. 29.

Three of the four broad categories of indicators used to construct the index made positive contributions in August, but three categories deteriorated from July. The index’s three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, moved up to +0.01 in August from –0.08 in July.

The change was led by declines in production-related indicators, according to a news release.

“The CFNAI Diffusion Index, which is also a three-month moving average, increased to +0.11 in August from +0.01 in July,” the release stated. “Forty-six of the 85 individual indicators made positive contributions to the CFNAI in August, while 39 made negative contributions. Twenty-nine indicators improved from July to August, while 55 indicators deteriorated and one was unchanged. Of the indicators that improved, eight made negative contributions.”

Production-related indicators contributed –0.08 to the CFNAI in August, down from +0.12 in July, according to the release. Industrial production decreased 0.2% in August after increasing 0.5% in July. The contribution of the sales, orders, and inventories category to the CFNAI ticked down to +0.01 in August from +0.03 in the previous month.