An economic slowdown within the next 12 months is looking increasingly likely, according to economists.

Chinese container with the flag of the People's Republic of China in the port. The concept of Chinese import and export.3D render

Many economists expect a considerable U.S. economic slowdown within the next year, and recent trends across the global economy indicate a downturn is coming sooner rather than later. The Wall Street Journal reported Nov. 7 that China’s exports to the rest of the world unexpectedly shrank in October ­— most notably, Chinese exports to the U.S. dropped 13%. The WSJ cited data from China’s General Administration of Customs in that reporting.

The WSJ highlighted a slew of other economic trends concerning the U.S. and the rest of the world:

  • The U.S. labor market is showing signs of cooling as the Federal Reserve hikes interest rates in response to high inflation, a potential indicator of a looming recession.
  • Growth is already slowing in the U.S., Europe and China simultaneously, but the International Monetary Fund warned last month that “the worst is yet to come” — the IMF expects global gross domestic product to expand 3.2% this year before regressing to 2.7% in 2023.
  • Exports from China declined 0.3% last month compared to a year earlier. That was far below expectations of economists polled by the Journal, who forecast that exports would increase 4% year-over-year.
  • South Korea and Taiwan were among other Asian nations to experience a slide in exports. South Korea’s Trade Ministry said exports dropped 5.7% in October year-over-year.
  • China saw significant decreases in exports of products including home appliances and medical supplies, while South Korea’s exports of memory chips, petrochemicals and computers declined.
  • The cost of shipping containers around the world has fallen in recent months. Prices for moving products from Asia to the U.S West Coast last were 87% lower year-over-year. The Journal also noted that ocean carriers are canceling “dozens of sailings on the world’s busiest routes during what is normally peak season.”

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Brad Star

Brad Star is an Associate Editor at MDM, having joined the company in August 2022. He spent most of the previous two years as a Business Reporter for USA-Today Network-Wisconsin’s Appleton Post-Crescent, writing its Buzz column that covered local retail and consumer service businesses in the Fox Cities. Star has a degree in economics from Beloit College.

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