Produced by the space consulting and market intelligence firm Novaspace – the result of a merger between Euroconsult and SpaceTec Partners – the release expects the market share of Non-Geostationary Orbit (NGSO) solutions as a primary maritime communications method to increase from 20% in 2023 to 90% by 2033.
It also highlighted the impact Starlink’s launch of its maritime service, which has apparently rapidly gained traction and boosted the number of VSAT-equipped vessels.
VSAT
Specifically, the total number of vessels using at least one satellite communication service during 2023 reached 40,600, and this is projected to more than double in 10 years, reaching 90,000 vessels by 2033.
Service revenues for the maritime market are anticipated to rise from $1.8 billion in 2023 to $3 billion by 2033, according to Novaspace. This growth is attributed to the increasing number of VSAT-equipped (very-small-aperture terminals) vessels and higher ARPU (average revenue per user) in certain sub-verticals.
Bandwidth usage has doubled in the last year mainly due to Starlink’s entry, according to the report, and this is forecasted to grow exponentially from 138 Gbps in 2023 to 1.7 Tbps by 2033, a 13-fold increase.
NGSO
New-generation NGSO systems will lead to decreased capacity prices, believes Novaspace, and these advanced systems should exponentially increase capacity supply. Operator revenues are projected to grow from just under $620 million in 2023 to approximately $1.14 billion by 2033, with a 6% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) over the decade.
“The reliance on GEO capacity as the primary communication means will decline as vessels transition to NGSO for their primary bandwidth needs. Consequently, NGSO capacity’s market share is expected to rise from 66% in 2023 to 96% by 2033.”
The service revenue market share generated by NGSOs is expected to climb from 17% in 2023 to 87% by 2033.
Maritime satellite
“The maritime satcom market continued to be highly dynamic in 2023 with the impact of Starlink’s market disruption was felt across the various sub-segments and expected to continue throughout 2024,” said Vishal Patil, Novaspace consultant and the report’s editor.
“While many vessel operators now have first-hand experience with Starlink services, several other suppliers are set to follow, including OneWeb during 2024, which will further accelerate the global adoption of NGSO services.”
See also: Inmarsat trials Orchestra maritime mesh for ship-to-ship connectivity
