Two consecutive years of double-digit year-over-year drops is unprecedented in the PC market.

IDC’s hopes for  a market rebound in 2024 rest on:

  1. PC Refresh Cycle: The vast and aging installed base of commercial PCs surpassing the four-year mark by 2024 is expected to necessitate a refresh, coinciding with the pressing demand to migrate toward Windows 11. The total PC market of 2024 should see growth of 3.4% compared to 2023.
  2. AI Integration: The integration of AI capabilities into PCs is expected to serve as a catalyst for upgrades, hitting shelves in 2024 and at first aimed toward certain segments of the enterprise PC market. Over time, further advancement in use cases and cost reductions could spread to the broader market.
  3. Continued evolution and recovery of the consumer installed base.

Beyond 2024, growth is expected to surpass pre-pandemic shipment levels and culminate in 285 million units by 2027.

“Perhaps historical context can offer some consolation to the tough slog the PC ecosystem is going through,” says IDC’sc Jay Chou, “while we still expect eight consecutive quarters of year-over-year volume declines from Q1 2022 through Q4 2023, it still pales to the 19 consecutive quarters of year-over-year PC declines from Q2 2012 to Q4 2016. Furthermore, notebooks are already at higher levels than 2019, signaling a sizable expansion of the notebook market even after COVID-induced purchases have subsided. We maintain that factors like hybrid work, commercial refresh, and growth in premium PCs can lead to a compound annual growth rate of 3.1% from 2023 through 2027.”

Worldwide Personal Computing Device Forecast by Market Segment: Shipments, Year-Over-Year Growth, and 2023-2027 CAGR (shipments in millions)
Segment 2023 Shipments 2023/2022 Growth 2027 Shipments 2027/2026 Growth 2023-2027 CAGR
Consumer 113.9 -14.8% 125.5 1.4% 2.4%
Education 29.6 -15.4% 35.0 0.8% 4.2%
Commercial (ex. Edu) 108.3 -12.2% 124.6 2.6% 3.6%
Total 251.8 -13.8% 285.0 1.8% 3.1%
Source: IDC Worldwide Personal Computing Device Tracker, December 21, 2023