May smartphone imports from China were down 94% from February. India and Vietnam are now the two largest sources of smartphone imports. Apple has been shifting much of its iPhone production to India from China. Samsung does most of its smartphone manufacturing in Vietnam.
U.S. imports of laptop PCs have been relatively stable from January 2025 to May 2025, averaging about $4 billion a month. However, imports from China dropped 90% from January to May.
Vietnam displaced China as the largest source of U.S. laptop imports, with imports up 147% from January to May. Dell and Apple produce many of their laptop PCs in Vietnam and HP is expanding production in Vietnam.
Television imports to the U.S. have been fairly steady in February through May 2025, averaging about $1.3 billion a month. As with smartphones and laptop PCs, China’s exports to the U.S. have dropped sharply, with a 61% decline from January to May. TV imports from Mexico declined 40% from January to April but picked up 29% in May.
Vietnam is becoming a significant source of TV imports, as it has with smartphones and PCs. U.S. TV imports from Vietnam grew 66% from January to May.
Currently, the U.S. does not impose tariffs on imports of smartphones or computers. However, in May President Trump threatened a 25% tariff on smartphones to be implemented by the end of June. As of mid-July, no smartphone tariff has been implemented.
U.S. imports from Mexico and Canada are subject to a 25% tariff. Goods covered under the USMCA are exempt, which includes electronics. Vietnam is one of only two countries with a new trade agreement with the U.S. in place (the other is the U.K.) and is now subject to a 20% tariff.
China is currently subject to a minimum 10% tariff under a 90-day truce. Product-specific tariffs bring China’s effective tariff rate above 30%. If no agreement is reached, the minimum tariff rate will be 34% on August 12, 2025.
The Trump administration sees China as the primary target for tariffs and has threatened rates as high as 125%. China has been reducing its exports to the U.S. to avoid punitive tariffs. The U.S. and China are currently in trade talks. Even if a reasonable tariff rate is reached, the damage has been done.
What is the outlook for U.S. electronics consumption? The U.S. has shifted to other countries to make up for the declines in imports from China for laptop PCs and TVs. However, other countries have not yet made up for the severe decline in smartphone imports from China.
U.S. smartphone manufacturing is practically non-existent. Only one company, Purism, assembles smartphones in the U.S. Purism has only sold a total of tens of thousands of phones in the last six years in a U.S. market of over 100 million smartphones sold annually. Its Liberty phone sells for $1,999, about twice the price of a high-end iPhone.
IDC estimates global smartphone shipments were 295 million units in 2Q 2025, down 2% from 1Q 2025 and down 1% from a year ago. U.S. smartphone shipments have not been released but will likely show a substantial drop in 2Q 2025 from 1Q 2025 unless sellers have inventory to make up for the shortage in supply. Based on current trends, the U.S. should see a shortage in smartphones in the second half of 2025.
